← THE TRILLION·DOLLAR HOME
Homes Have No Memory Working draft · August 2026

References and Source Notes

~2 min read

  1. 1Harvard JCHS, Remodeling Futures Program (2025): home maintenance and improvement spending above $600B a year; includes improvement activity beyond this paper's scope.
  2. 2Harvard JCHS, Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (January 2026): owner spending keeps growing through 2026 at a slower rate.
  3. 3U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2019–2023 5-year estimates: ~82.9M owner-occupied housing units.
  4. 4Contemporary reporting on Homejoy's 2015 shutdown (incl. Forbes).
  5. 5ServiceTitan, FY2026 results: ~10,800 active customers; $82.1B gross transaction volume.
  6. 6U.S. BLS, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Electricians: 9% growth 2024–2034; ~81,000 annual openings.
  7. 7U.S. BLS, HVAC Mechanics and Installers: 8% growth 2024–2034.
  8. 8U.S. BLS, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters: 4% growth 2024–2034; ~44,000 annual openings.
  9. 9ServiceTitan, 2026 Residential State of the Trades / AI in the Skilled Trades: high contractor interest in AI, materially lower adoption.
  10. 10Frontdoor, 2025 filings and earnings releases.
  11. 11U.S. Department of Energy, Home Energy Rebates: $8.8B authorized (not completed project spending).
  12. 12Urban Company Ltd., IPO materials and coverage (September 2025): FY2025 revenue ₹1,144 crore (+38% YoY), EBITDA margin positive; 54,000 active service professionals across 51 cities as of June 2025; offering subscribed ~103x; listed NSE/BSE September 17, 2025. Net profit includes a one-time deferred tax credit; cite EBITDA.
  13. 13Thumbtack help center and Community announcement (November 2024): Instant Book removed platform-wide; it "wasn’t working as intended for pros."
  14. 14Visa, Intelligent Commerce (April 2025) and Trusted Agent Protocol (October 2025) releases; Mastercard, Agent Pay (April 2025); Stripe and OpenAI, Agentic Commerce Protocol (September 2025).
  15. 15Bloomberg, Fortune, and others (August 16–17, 2026): Stripe to acquire OpenRouter for $7B+; ~8M users, 400+ models; May 2026 round at ~$1.3B. Re-verify before publication.
  16. 16U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025: 148,260,882 U.S. housing units as of July 1, 2025.
  17. 17Harvard JCHS, Improving America's Housing 2025: owner improvement spending reached $405B in 2023, owner maintenance spending $105B, and need-to-do replacements represented 49% of owner improvement spending. The U.S. housing stock is the oldest on record, with owner-occupied homes at a median age of roughly 42 years; spending rises materially as homes age.
  18. 18International Federation of Robotics, World Robotics 2025: nearly 200,000 professional service robots sold in 2024; professional cleaning robot sales rose 34%, inspection and maintenance rose sharply from a small base, and the Robot-as-a-Service fleet grew 31%.

Method note

This paper separates reported facts from analysis and forward-looking scenarios. Market-size figures are not a precise TAM; public sources use incompatible scopes. Private-company figures should be re-verified against primary filings before publication. Predictions are the author's analysis, not forecasts by cited institutions. Operator observations come from the author's own operating and property-management experience and are labeled as such.